The US CLO secondary market appears to be holding steady as participants consider their next move.
"Superficially it looks like the long-standing pattern in the market will hold, but it feels to me like changes are afoot following the return from Vegas," says one trader. "There's no obvious single driver and I'm not sure there's even a consensus in the market, but people are digesting a lot of new information and could ultimately decide to act on it."
Much of that information was discussed extensively at the conference, the trader reports. "There were many conversations around the US tax reforms, which could benefit the consumer but adversely impact high yield or fixed income more broadly; how the triple-A curve has flattened; the knock-on effects of broader market volatility; and, of course, the end of risk retention, which not least will mean that if that change stays in place marginal issuers will start to issue, further boosting primary."
At the beginning of the month primary CLO issuance was the secondary market's chief concern, the trader says. "Following spread tightening in January, new issue congestion in the first couple of weeks of February led to secondary starting to soften and we're now marginally softer still, but it's nothing major."
Indeed, the trader adds: "There is a feeling that the market is expensive right now and spreads are still relatively tight in secondary. However, while information is still being digested sideways movement is the likeliest short-term outcome."
There is currently only one BWIC on today's US CLO calendar but it is a sizeable one - $263+m across 33 double-A to single-B line items. Due at 14:00 New York time it comprises:
ALM 2012-5A ER3, ALM 2012-7X DR, ALM 2015-12A DR, ALM 2015-12A E, ALM 2015-16A E, AMMC 2013-13A B2L1, ANCHC 2013-1A DR, ECP 2014-6A C, ECP 2014-6A D1, FCO 2017-9A B, GOCAP 2014-18A CR, HLDN 2014-3A E, ICG 2014-1A DR, JFIN 2015-1A E, KHWK 2015-1A D, MCLO 2017-10A D, MHAWK 2013-1A C, OAKC 2014-10A E, OAKCL 2014-2A C, OAKCL 2014-2A D, OCP 2017-13A D, OZLMF 2013-3A CR, RRAM 2017-1A DR, SHACK 2013-4A D, SHACK 2013-4A E, TAMCO 2017-1A C, TAMCO 2017-1A D, TELOS 2014-5A D, TELOS 2014-5A E, TELOS 2014-5X D, TELOS 2014-5X E, WAMI 2014-1A D and ZCLO3 2015-3A C.
Two of the bonds have covered with a price on PriceABS in the past three months - RRAM 2017-1A DR at 102.4 and AMMC 2013-13A B2L1 at 101.82, both on 7 December.
